Deep-dive research on Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — published 2026-07-07 18:11 UTC, current price $245.98.
AMZN is trading at $245.98, but the story is the pace: AMZN has gained 15.6% in just the last three months alone, a move large enough that mean-reversion becomes a genuine tactical consideration alongside trend-following logic. One risk-management note up front: annualized volatility for AMZN is running at 35.7%, well above broad-market norms. Position sizing should reflect that, regardless of which side of the trade this analysis favors.
What the Signals Say
Our take on AMZN as of July 07, 2026, drawn from the full indicator suite plus historical risk metrics:
- Near-term view (0-3mo): BUY — moderate conviction
- Multi-year view (12mo+): BUY — strong conviction
- Composite reading: Bullish — moderate strength
Current price $245.98, day move +0.75% ▲. That puts AMZN in the 61th percentile of its 52-week range ($196.00 low, $278.56 high).
The Highlights
The signal-to-noise summary for AMZN, distilled down:
- Trailing 1-year: AMZN has gained 10.10%, outpacing the long-run US equity average of roughly +10%.
- Volatility: 35.68% annualized is elevated. Sharpe 0.03, Sortino 0.03.
- Historical drawdown: worst peak-to-trough in the sample was -56.15%, bottomed on 2022-12-28.
- Technical composite: score +0.43 on -1/+1 scale — 5 bullish indicators vs 2 bearish.
- Verdicts: short-term BUY (moderate conviction), long-term BUY (strong conviction).
Meet AMZN
Meet AMZN: Amazon.com, Inc., an equity, trading on NMS in USD. The technical, return, and risk analysis below draws entirely from the public trailing history for this ticker.
At-a-Glance Data
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Symbol | AMZN |
| Full name | Amazon.com, Inc. |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Currency | USD |
| Type | equity |
| 52-week high | $278.56 |
| 52-week low | $196.00 |
| Position in 52w range | 61% |
Signal-by-Signal Breakdown
Now to the technicals. The framework is intentionally simple: 11 indicators each cast a bullish, bearish, or neutral vote, and the composite reading is an unweighted tally of those votes. The individual indicator details follow.
The Aggregate: 🟢 Bullish — Moderate
Rolling up the 11 individual indicators into one number: 5 vote bullish, 2 vote bearish, 4 vote neutral. That produces a net score of +0.43 on the -1 to +1 scale (where -1 means every indicator screaming bear and +1 means every one screaming bull).
That reads as a Moderate bullish setup. Independent signals across different indicator families are all pointing higher — that kind of alignment matters more than any single indicator agreeing on its own.
Individual Signal Readings
Below is each indicator’s current signal. Where a reading is close to neutral, no additional commentary is needed — the number speaks for itself. Where a reading is unusual, the interpretation follows.
| Indicator | Signal | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| RSI-14 | 🟡 NEUTRAL | RSI 52 in neutral zone |
| MACD | 🟢 BULLISH | MACD Bullish (still negative) |
| MA-50 | 🔴 BEARISH | Price below MA50 ($255.01) |
| MA-200 | 🟢 BULLISH | Price above MA200 ($233.10) |
| MA-50/200 cross | 🟢 BULLISH | Golden Cross (MA50 > MA200) |
| Bollinger Bands | 🟡 NEUTRAL | Mid-band (pos 79%) |
| Volume | 🟢 BULLISH | Volume surge +38% on uptrend |
| ADX | 🟢 BULLISH | ADX 25 (strong uptrend) |
| Stochastic | 🔴 BEARISH | Stochastic 85 (overbought) |
| OBV | 🟡 NEUTRAL | OBV trend mixed |
| ATR | 🟡 NEUTRAL | ATR $7.87 (3.2%) — normal |
Zooming In on the Non-Neutral Signals
Skipping the neutral readings for space — here are only the AMZN indicators that are currently producing a directional signal worth thinking through.
MACD
MACD signal for AMZN: BULLISH — MACD Bullish (still negative). The 12/26/9 configuration is the classic trend-following setup; a fresh crossover is the specific bullish or bearish trigger.
MA-50
Price vs MA-50: BEARISH — Price below MA50 ($255.01). The 50-day is the standard medium-term trend line; where AMZN’s close sits relative to it says a lot in one number.
MA-200
200-day MA read: BULLISH — Price above MA200 ($233.10). Long-term trend proxy; more meaningful than the 50-day for allocators who don’t trade weekly.
MA-50/200 cross
Golden/Death Cross state: BULLISH — Golden Cross (MA50 > MA200). Widely followed enough that its signals partly become self-fulfilling — worth paying attention to for that reason alone.
Volume
Volume read: BULLISH — Volume surge +38% on uptrend. Directional moves without volume behind them tend to fail; whether volume is expanding here matters for the persistence of the current move.
ADX
ADX status for AMZN: BULLISH — ADX 25 (strong uptrend). Tells you how to trade the ticker (trend-following vs mean-reversion), not which side to take.
Stochastic
Stoch reading for AMZN: BEARISH — Stochastic 85 (overbought). Short-term extreme detector; triggers earlier than RSI but has more false signals.
Recent Price Action and Performance
AMZN returned +10.10% over the trailing year, outpacing the roughly +10% long-run average of broad US indices. The bulk of the year’s gain came recently: +15.60% over just the last three months. Buyers are still active at current levels. The calendar-year read on AMZN: +8.60% YTD.
Total Returns Across Timeframes
The table below shows AMZN’s total return over several standard windows. Yahoo’s adjusted-close series bakes dividends into the price, so these numbers approximate total return (price appreciation plus reinvested dividends).
| Time window | Total return | Starting price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | +0.75% | $244.16 |
| 1 Week | +2.43% | $240.14 |
| 1 Month | -3.08% | $253.79 |
| 3 Month | +15.60% | $212.79 |
| 6 Month | +8.60% | $226.50 |
| Year-to-Date | +8.60% | $226.50 |
| 1 Year | +10.10% | $223.41 |
| Full sample (5.0y) | +31.84% (CAGR +5.71%) | $186.57 |
The Risk Profile of AMZN
AMZN’s annualized volatility of 35.68% is high, indicating the security experiences large price swings — position sizing should account for meaningful mark-to-market volatility that may test conviction during drawdowns. Sharpe at 0.03 tells a mediocre risk-adjusted story — investors who wanted returns have gotten some, but they paid a lot of volatility to get it. Sortino 0.03. The max drawdown of -56.15% (bottom: 2022-12-28) is the honest worst-case in the record. Any position sized without room to weather a repeat is over-sized.
Risk metrics computed over trailing ~5.0 years of daily closes.
| Risk metric | Value | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Annualized return (CAGR) | 5.71% | Compound growth rate — geometric mean annualized |
| Annualized volatility | 35.68% | Standard deviation of returns, scaled to one year |
| Downside deviation | 36.42% | Volatility of negative returns only |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.03 | Excess return per unit of total volatility (vs 4.5% Rf) |
| Sortino ratio | 0.03 | Excess return per unit of downside volatility |
| Max drawdown | -56.15% | Largest peak-to-trough decline (bottomed 2022-12-28) |
Price Chart — 1 Year
$ 274.99 | *
| |* **
| * * |
| * * |
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| |* |* * * * *
$ 237.97 | * * | * * ** * * | **
| * ** * * * * * * |* * * | |
|* * |* * ** |* * * | |
| * * | * *
| * ** *** |
$ 200.95 | * *
+------------------------------------------------------------
2025-07-07 2026-01-05 2026-06-30
Reading the chart: start at $223.47 on 2025-07-07, end at $245.98 on 2026-07-07. That’s +10.07% net across 1 year of daily bars. The peak of the visible window sits recently at $274.99 (2026-05-06) — a bullish structural detail worth pairing with the momentum readings below.
Zoomed In: One-Month View
$ 274.00 | **
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$ 250.50 | * *** ** * **
| *** * | ****
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$ 227.01 | *
+------------------------------
2026-05-22 2026-06-15 2026-07-07
Zooming into the last 30 sessions lets you see the shorter-term structure clearly: recent support and resistance levels, breakout points, and near-term momentum shifts.
Trading Thesis for AMZN
Below, AMZN’s outlook split into two horizons. Short-term (0-3 months) is momentum-driven; long-term (12+ months) leans on trend and volume-flow characteristics.
The 3-Month View: 🟢 BUY (Moderate)
Short-term signals lean positive but not unanimously. A partial position or wait-for-confirmation stance is reasonable. Watch for a break above recent resistance.
Key factors supporting this buy view:
- RSI reads 51.7, mid-range. AMZN’s momentum signal is neutral; look elsewhere for the actionable read.
- MACD signal for AMZN: BULLISH — MACD Bullish (still negative). The 12/26/9 configuration is the classic trend-following setup; a fresh crossover is the specific bullish or bearish trigger.
- Stoch reading for AMZN: BEARISH — Stochastic 85 (overbought). Short-term extreme detector; triggers earlier than RSI but has more false signals.
- Volume read: BULLISH — Volume surge +38% on uptrend. Directional moves without volume behind them tend to fail; whether volume is expanding here matters for the persistence of the current move.
Long Horizon (12mo+): 🟢 BUY — Strong
Long-term structure is unambiguously bullish. Trend, trend strength, and volume flows are all aligned for a durable multi-quarter advance. Suitable for a core position with room to add on pullbacks.
Factors weighing on this buy conclusion:
- Price is below the 50-day moving average — Price below MA50 ($255.01).
- Price is above the 200-day moving average — Price above MA200 ($233.10).
- Price vs MA-50: BEARISH — Price below MA50 ($255.01). The 50-day is the standard medium-term trend line; where AMZN’s close sits relative to it says a lot in one number.
- ADX status for AMZN: BULLISH — ADX 25 (strong uptrend). Tells you how to trade the ticker (trend-following vs mean-reversion), not which side to take.
Methodology in One Paragraph
All figures are computed from Yahoo Finance’s public chart endpoint. Returns use dividend-adjusted closes; volatility is annualized daily-return standard deviation using a 252-trading-day year; Sharpe and Sortino ratios assume a 4.5% risk-free rate. The composite signal is an unweighted majority vote of 11 indicators — deliberately simple to keep it auditable rather than clever.
Before Acting on Any of This
Nothing here constitutes personalized financial advice. It’s a rules-based technical read, published for education and discussion. Past performance doesn’t guarantee anything; indicators can and do fail. Talk to a licensed advisor before making trades based on this analysis.
Report generated by FIN/400 on 2026-07-07 18:11 UTC. Data via Yahoo Finance. Snapshot as of the generation timestamp; markets move continuously.
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