Research note on JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM). Data as of 2026-07-07 18:08 UTC, price $339.22 at close.
JPM sits at $339.22, in the top 15% of its 52-week range ($279.10 to $343.45). Prices this close to the high tell you the trend has recently been strong; the question this analysis works to answer is whether that strength is likely to continue.
Verdict Summary
Based on a comprehensive review of 11 technical indicators, historical price action, and risk-adjusted return characteristics, our current outlook on JPM is:
- Trader horizon: HOLD — weak conviction
- Investor horizon: BUY — strong conviction
- Aggregate technical read: Bullish — strong strength
Current price $339.22, day move +0.44% ▲. That puts JPM in the 93th percentile of its 52-week range ($279.10 low, $343.45 high).
Key Takeaways
The five things that most matter for a decision on JPM right now:
- Trailing 1-year: JPM has gained 14.60%, outpacing the long-run US equity average of roughly +10%.
- Volatility: 24.54% annualized is elevated. Sharpe 0.54, Sortino 0.52.
- Historical drawdown: worst peak-to-trough in the sample was -40.65%, bottomed on 2022-10-11.
- Technical composite: score +0.71 on -1/+1 scale — 6 bullish indicators vs 1 bearish.
- Verdicts: short-term HOLD (weak conviction), long-term BUY (strong conviction).
What Is JPM?
JPM (JPMorgan Chase & Co.) is an equity on NYQ. What follows is a rules-based read of its trailing daily-close data — indicators, risk metrics, and horizon-specific verdicts.
Key Facts
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Symbol | JPM |
| Full name | JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
| Exchange | NYQ |
| Currency | USD |
| Type | equity |
| 52-week high | $343.45 |
| 52-week low | $279.10 |
| Position in 52w range | 93% |
Reading the Chart Through 11 Lenses
Technical analysis reads patterns in price and volume to infer the balance of supply and demand — the collective actions of buyers and sellers. No single indicator is decisive; each captures a different facet of market behavior. Value comes from combining them and looking for agreement across independent signals.
Composite Signal: 🟢 Bullish (Strong)
Vote count across all 11 tracked indicators: bullish 6, bearish 1, neutral 4. The signed composite comes out to +0.71 (bounds are -1 to +1). No weighting is applied — each indicator gets one vote.
That’s a Strong bullish technical read. When multiple indicator families agree, the aggregate carries meaningfully more weight than any single reading — which is exactly the setup here.
Each Indicator, One by One
The following table summarizes the current reading of each individual indicator. Detailed interpretation follows for the readings that are unusual enough to warrant explanation.
| Indicator | Signal | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| RSI-14 | 🟡 NEUTRAL | RSI 67 in neutral zone |
| MACD | 🟢 BULLISH | MACD Bullish Cross (positive) |
| MA-50 | 🟢 BULLISH | Price above MA50 ($313.66) |
| MA-200 | 🟢 BULLISH | Price above MA200 ($308.77) |
| MA-50/200 cross | 🟢 BULLISH | Golden Cross (MA50 > MA200) |
| Bollinger Bands | 🔴 BEARISH | Near upper band (overbought) |
| Volume | 🟡 NEUTRAL | Volume normal (1.00× avg) |
| ADX | 🟢 BULLISH | ADX 36 (strong uptrend) |
| Stochastic | 🟡 NEUTRAL | Stochastic 78 |
| OBV | 🟢 BULLISH | OBV rising (accumulation) |
| ATR | 🟡 NEUTRAL | ATR $7.08 (2.1%) — normal |
What the Extreme Signals Are Telling Us
Skipping the neutral readings for space — here are only the JPM indicators that are currently producing a directional signal worth thinking through.
RSI-14
RSI reads 67.1, upper end of neutral. JPM’s momentum is running warm but not hot. Room for either direction from here.
MACD
MACD: BULLISH — MACD Bullish Cross (positive). The trend-follower’s crossover signal for JPM, tracking whether short-term momentum is accelerating or decelerating relative to the intermediate trend.
MA-50
Price vs MA-50: BULLISH — Price above MA50 ($313.66). The 50-day is the standard medium-term trend line; where JPM’s close sits relative to it says a lot in one number.
MA-200
MA-200 status for JPM: BULLISH — Price above MA200 ($308.77). The classic bull-market/bear-market dividing line.
MA-50/200 cross
Golden/Death Cross state: BULLISH — Golden Cross (MA50 > MA200). Widely followed enough that its signals partly become self-fulfilling — worth paying attention to for that reason alone.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger status for JPM: BEARISH — Near upper band (overbought). Reading the bands as a volatility envelope: an upper-band touch flags extension risk, a lower-band touch flags capitulation.
ADX
ADX status for JPM: BULLISH — ADX 36 (strong uptrend). Tells you how to trade the ticker (trend-following vs mean-reversion), not which side to take.
Stochastic
Stochastic: NEUTRAL — Stochastic 78. Best used as confirmation for another indicator rather than a standalone trigger.
OBV
OBV signal: BULLISH — OBV rising (accumulation). Cumulative volume flow — divergences between OBV and price are the classic setup this indicator identifies.
JPM’s Recent Performance
JPM’s trailing 12-month return of +14.60% sits comfortably above the ~10% long-run average. Recent three months for JPM: +14.81%. Momentum is accelerating rather than fading. Year-to-date, JPM is +4.22%, giving investors a real-time gauge of how the current calendar year has treated the position.
Trailing Returns Table
Here are JPM’s returns over the windows people usually care about. Yahoo’s adjusted closes include reinvested dividends, so these are effectively total-return figures.
| Time window | Total return | Starting price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | +0.44% | $337.72 |
| 1 Week | +2.98% | $329.39 |
| 1 Month | +9.11% | $310.89 |
| 3 Month | +14.81% | $295.45 |
| 6 Month | +4.22% | $325.48 |
| Year-to-Date | +4.22% | $325.48 |
| 1 Year | +14.60% | $296.00 |
| Full sample (5.0y) | +124.74% (CAGR +17.67%) | $150.94 |
Risk-Metric Deep Dive
Annualized volatility on JPM is 24.54% — meaningfully above broad-market norms. Position sizing should be reduced accordingly. Sharpe at 0.54 lands in the acceptable range. Sortino (0.52) offers a fairer picture for investors who welcome upside surprises. The max drawdown of -40.65% (bottom: 2022-10-11) is the honest worst-case in the record. Any position sized without room to weather a repeat is over-sized.
Risk metrics computed over trailing ~5.0 years of daily closes.
| Risk metric | Value | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Annualized return (CAGR) | 17.67% | Compound growth rate — geometric mean annualized |
| Annualized volatility | 24.54% | Standard deviation of returns, scaled to one year |
| Downside deviation | 25.29% | Volatility of negative returns only |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.54 | Excess return per unit of total volatility (vs 4.5% Rf) |
| Sortino ratio | 0.52 | Excess return per unit of downside volatility |
| Max drawdown | -40.65% | Largest peak-to-trough decline (bottomed 2022-10-11) |
The Trailing-Year Chart
$ 334.04 | * **
| * * | *
| | | |
| * | | * |
| * * |* | * | * * *
| ** * * * * | * | | |*** | *
$ 308.47 | * | ** * | ||| | | * | * * |
| * * || ** * ** |* | * *
| ** | * * | *
|* * * ** | * |
| * * * * ||
$ 282.89 | * *
+------------------------------------------------------------
2025-07-07 2026-01-05 2026-06-30
The chart above traces the price journey from $291.97 on 2025-07-07 to $339.22 on 2026-07-07, a net change of +16.18% over roughly 1 year(s) of trading. The high of $339.22 was set recently on 2026-07-07, suggesting the security is currently near multi-month strength — worth pairing with the momentum indicators to assess whether continuation or pause is more likely.
Price Chart — Last 30 Days
$ 339.22 | **
| ** **** **
| | * ***
| **
$ 317.90 | * * *
|** * * *
| | **
$ 296.58 | ****
+------------------------------
2026-05-22 2026-06-15 2026-07-07
The 30-day chart offers a tighter view of recent price action — useful for identifying short-term support, resistance, and potential entry zones for tactical positions.
From Analysis to Thesis
Trading verdicts come in two horizons — a short-term view based mostly on momentum and oscillator readings, and a long-term view based on trend structure and volume flow. They can (and often do) disagree.
Short-Term Outlook (Next 3 Months): 🟡 HOLD (Weak Conviction)
Short-term signals are mixed. No decisive setup — waiting for a clearer catalyst is prudent. Existing positions can be held; new entries are not compelling.
The specific readings behind the hold call:
- RSI reads 67.1, upper end of neutral. JPM’s momentum is running warm but not hot. Room for either direction from here.
- MACD: BULLISH — MACD Bullish Cross (positive). The trend-follower’s crossover signal for JPM, tracking whether short-term momentum is accelerating or decelerating relative to the intermediate trend.
- Bollinger status for JPM: BEARISH — Near upper band (overbought). Reading the bands as a volatility envelope: an upper-band touch flags extension risk, a lower-band touch flags capitulation.
Long Horizon (12mo+): 🟢 BUY — Strong
Long-term structure is unambiguously bullish. Trend, trend strength, and volume flows are all aligned for a durable multi-quarter advance. Suitable for a core position with room to add on pullbacks.
Factors weighing on this buy conclusion:
- Price is above the 50-day moving average — Price above MA50 ($313.66).
- Price is above the 200-day moving average — Price above MA200 ($308.77).
- Price vs MA-50: BULLISH — Price above MA50 ($313.66). The 50-day is the standard medium-term trend line; where JPM’s close sits relative to it says a lot in one number.
- ADX status for JPM: BULLISH — ADX 36 (strong uptrend). Tells you how to trade the ticker (trend-following vs mean-reversion), not which side to take.
- Volume signal: NEUTRAL — Volume normal (1.00× avg). Volume-price confirmation — rising prices need rising participation to be sustainable; the opposite pattern usually precedes reversals.
- Trading at 93% of the 52-week range — extended toward highs.
About the Numbers Above
Methodology in brief: prices are Yahoo Finance’s adjusted-close series, returns are compound (not arithmetic mean), risk metrics use daily log-returns annualized, Sharpe assumes 4.5% risk-free rate. The composite verdict is a simple majority across 11 rules-based indicators, chosen for auditability over sophistication.
A Note on What This Isn’t
Nothing here constitutes personalized financial advice. It’s a rules-based technical read, published for education and discussion. Past performance doesn’t guarantee anything; indicators can and do fail. Talk to a licensed advisor before making trades based on this analysis.
FIN/400 · run at 2026-07-07 18:08 UTC · data source: Yahoo Finance · figures are snapshots and will drift as JPM continues trading.
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